At The 5/6th Mark.....

I predicted the team would go 15-12 and was kinda close as they went 17-10.

Record: 80-55 Pace : 96-66

The Good

Starting pitching continues to be the driving force behind the Angels. The bullpen (except for Shields) has been solid. Vlad is back and GA has joined him. And Mathis is doing solid behind the plate.

The Bad

Napoli continues to be nagged by his injuries and Shields has become a liability on the mound. You just never know what pitcher you're gonna get with Santana.

What Could Go Wrong

Someone on the starting staff goes down with an injury. Figgins can't return from his injury

What Could Go Right

Napoli comes back strong and Juan Rivera gives the Angels a boost offensively. Shields returns to form.

What Will Happen

The Angels will cruise to the AL West crown with a solid 16-11 run.

Ratatouille Now Being Served At Angel Stadium

So there are rats infesting Angel Stadium. Maybe its because of our exciting play. Maybe they are there to help out. Maybe, just maybe one of these rats is a master chef and what we are experiencing at the park is some of the best cuisine in the baseball world.

Could be.

At The 2/3rd Mark......

(I know I should have done this before Saturday's game.)

I predicted the team would go 16-11 and wasn't really close as they went 13-14.

Record: 63-45 Pace : 94-68

The Good

Well, the pitching by Lackey, Escobar and company have been solid. And its nice to see Speier back giving the bullpen a boost.

The Bad

The offense. Vlad disappeared and so did every other hot Angel. Colon is probably out for the year and Napoli is hurt again.

What Could Go Wrong

They offense stays MIA and the lack of power starts to hurt. Saunders becomes a AAAA pitcher. Napoli stays hurt and can't return.

What Could Go Right

Vlad becomes the Impaler again. Napoli comes back from the DL soon. A couple of Angel hitters get hot.

What Will Happen

The Angels will right the ship and be a pleasing team to watch in August. Prediction: 15-12.

At The Halfway Mark....

I predicted that this team would go 15-12 over the past 27 games and I was close. They went 17-10.

Record: 50-31 Pace: 100-62

The Good

Chone Figgins. Wow, has he had a great June (from a OPS+ of 16 to 115). Willits has been a terrific lead-off hitter (.430 OBP).
Cabrera (125), Kotchman (142), GMJ(110), Napoli (111) and, of course, Vladdy (165) have taken this offense to a new level. I know it won't last but its been fun to watch.

The Bad

The nagging injuries to the team especially to the pitching staff. Colon can't seem to find the groove and the back half of the bullpen is scary. And we keep waiting for Speier to come back.

What Could Go Wrong

The main answer is always Vlad gets hurt. But the nagging injuries could start to take their toll. And the offense decides to be as bad as they have been good.

What Could Go Right

The offense continues on its merry way beating the rest of the AL into submission.

What Will Happen

The Angels will keep rolling with a 16-11 record over the next 27 games.

At The One-Third Mark...

I predicted that this team would go 16-11 over the past 27 games and I was so close. They went 17-10.

Record: 33-21 Pace: 99-63

The Good

Napoli (OPS+ 112) and Kotchman (138) getting hot and helping to carry this offense. Guerrero continues to shine as well as Cabrera (124) and GMJ (117).

Lackey and Escobar are showing that the Angels have two number one starters. Weaver is struggling but I have no doubt that he will be a 100-110 ERA+ guy by years end. Shields and K-Rod continue to give the Halos the edge in the eighth and ninth innings.

The Bad

Figgins (16, yes that's right), Aybar (57) and Shea (57) continue to suck away precious at-bats.

Santana has continued his Jekyll and Hyde act. Colon (ERA+ 78) has suddenly become terrible. Carrasco (72) and Oliver (53) show that they should only be pitching in blowout situations.

What Could Go Wrong

As always, the answer is Vlad gets hurt.

What Could Go Right

Napoli and Kotchman resurgences continue while Figgins and Aybar hit better. Shea gets DFA'd and Santana stops drinking that awful potion while on the road.

And, of course, Speier comes back.

What Will Happen

The Angels will continue to play well and go 15-12 over the next 27 games.

One-Sixth of the Way Through...

The Angels have played well but so much has happened in just the first 27 games. The Angels have had both a hot streak and a cold streak. They've looked like a cellar dwelling team (on the road trip from hell) and a dominant team (first week of the season and against Seattle). They had a big scare when Vlad was plunked and visions of anemic offense danced in my head.

So without further ado.....a review.

Record: 16-11 on pace for a 96-66 season.

The Good

Starting pitching, a solid 3.41 ERA (second in the AL). Lackey (4-2, 2.19, 8.51 K/9) has looked like the ace we all knew he was. Colon (3-0, 3.79, 8.05 K/9)has come back and given us more than we could have hoped for. Escobar has been solid with Saunders and Moseley filling in admirably for the injured Weaver and Colon.

Vlad (1.194 OPS) has been the man. Mathews (.832 OPS) has played like his deserves the money (well, almost). Kendrick (.855 OPS) was hitting before being injured and will be coming back soon.

The Bad

Relief pitching, a pedestrian 4.26 ERA (1oth in the AL). Outside of K-Rod and Speier this pen has been awful. Hopefully Shields will come around but I think Carrasco and Oliver are hopeless.

Napoli (.603 OPS) has struggled mightily. GA has been ice cold with runners in scoring position.

What Could Go Wrong

Vlad gets hurt. It's number 1, 2 and 3 on the list of things Angels fans want to see least.

What Could Go Right

Scot Shields finds his form and the Angels have a dominating back of the bullpen. Napoli finds his bat and Figgins comes back strong.

What will happen

The Angels will match their first 27 games win for win and go another 16-11.

Okay, So That's Over....

Well now, that wasn't too good of a road trip, was it?

A 1-7 record. Scoring just 10 runs. Four of them in the first game of the trip. A .214 team batting avg., .551 OPS. A team 5.40 ERA. Defense not making anybody forget about 2006.

Having your two best hitters plunked and missing the next few games (in Howie's case a few weeks). The rest of the offense unable to pick up the slack. Pitching that looks hittable.

But it's done and now time to come back to some home cookin'. The Angels had a bad start in '02 and came out fine. I think they can turn things around and get back to where they should be.

No time to hit the panic button.

Aybar Should Not Steal

Erick Aybar may be a fast runner but he isn't a good base stealer. So in the ninth inning trailing by one Scioscia puts Aybar in to pinch run and has him try to steal second base. Aybar is thrown out to end the game. And what really hurts is that Kendrick is at the plate. A 4-for-4 Kendrick is at the plate. The percentages here dictate that you let Howie swing the bat. Aybar cannot be allowed to try to steal a base in such an important situation.

And some people agree.

What!?

It's just been one week and Rich Lederer is saying maybe K-Rod has lost a little something.

Is it the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end for K-Rod? I don't know, it might be neither. After all, the season is less than a week old. But he looks more like Don Stanhouse than his old self in the early going.

Everyone struggles occasionally. Everyone. Way too early for the speculation.

Ooooorrrr... Maybe K-Rod isn't doctoring the ball this season.

No, it's just a bad start. Check out Seitz's blog for why the accusation is crap.

1-0

Okay, that was good. Lackey was shaky, he threw 96 pitches over his five innings of work and walked four but managed to keep the Rangers in check. The bullpen was superb (I'm not counting Oliver's performance), allowing no hits and no walks.

Matthews was pretty much sensational with his glove (except that little pop fly) and added a walk and a hit along with it. But the man of all men was Kotchman who homered, singled and walked. If this is a sign of things to come this will be a very good Angel year.

Nothing like starting off the year with a win. Now if they could just tack on 99 more....

National League 2007

Okay, time for me to look into the future and see the senior circuit results.

Mets 90-72
Phillies 87-75
Braves 81-81
Marlins 75-87
Nats 69-93

Cardinals 85-77
Cubs 84-78
Astros 83-79
Brewers 74-88
Pirates 67-95
Reds 66-96

D-Backs 88-74
Padres 86-76
Rockies 80-82
Giants 76-86
Dodgers 71-91

NL Winner: Diamondbacks

American League 2007

Here are my predicted standings for the AL in 2007

AL West

Angels 93-69
A's 86-76
Rangers 84-78
Mariners 72-90

Central

Indians 90-72
Twins 89-73
White Sox 88-74
Tigers 87-75
Royals 60-102

East

Yankees 93-69
Red Sox 88-74
Blue Jays 84-78
Orioles 80-82
Devil Rays 74-88

AL Winner: Angels (OF COURSE)

I'm optimistic that Napoli, Kendrick and Kotchman will help the Angels improve upon last years offensive perfomance. And the defense can't be as bad as last year, can it?

Cheaper by the (Half) Dozen

So I packed up the kids (six of them but not all mine) and wife and headed out to Anaheim for the 2007 Angel Fan Fest. The rain stayed away for the 90 minute drive and we arrived shortly after noon.

I wanted to get some autographs but with only three hours left until closing the kids wanted to go on the rides. I may have been the adult but there was six of them and they wanted to move around after being cooped up in the van. So the rides it was. Over and over and over and over again. I think I personally was dragged onto the ferris wheel by my 4 year-old daughter no less than 6,471 times.

We did get a few minutes to go into the big tent and sign up my three daughters to the Angels Junior Club. A nice deal where you get vouchers for tickets to three games, a t-shirt and best of all, the kids get to go to the front of the line for "Kids Run the Bases" days at the park. This year will mark the sixth year my kids will be members.

While in the tent I saw the line to get pictures with Mike Napoli (my new favorite) and Jeff Mathis. A very looong line. A line I would love to have stood in but it was after two and Napoli was due on the big stage with Chone Figgins at 2:30.So back we went to ride.... what else? The ferris wheel.

All in all, I think I'm doing my part to create six lifelong Angel fans.

Erstad goes to ChiSox

Erstad has signed with the Chicago White Sox. It won't look right having Darin in another team's jersey. Many players have worn an Angels uniform but Darin Erstad is the player who looks right in an Angels uni. Erstad stands apart because he simply played. All. Out.

Nothing can say it better than this quote from Halo's Heaven by Angel Lifer Brent Carter:

With Erstad you either get it or you don't, and if you don't it's just too bad for you.

Amen.

Angel Fan Fest 2007

The fan fest is one Arte's better ideas at marketing the team and generating fan interest. My kids and I were disappointed (okay, I was disappointed) that there was no fan fest last year. But it is back this year and I'm looking forward to going.

McGwire Gets Slighted?

Mark McGwire didn't get voted into the Hall of Fame. He finished with just 128 votes or 23.5%. No doubt the number one reason he didn't get in was his steroid use. In fact I'm sure it was the reason he didn't get in. A quick look at his stats shows (and comparing him to the two new inductees) he was one of the best.

AVG/OBP/SLG OPS OPS+ RC/27
McGwire .263/.394/.588 .982 163 8.16
Ripken .276/.340/.447 .787 112 5.38
Gwynn .338/.388/.459 .847 132 6.77

McGwire was far and away the best hitter of the three. Yeah, I know that Ripken was a shortstop and should be given some slack. But giving Ripken some slack brings him up to Gwynn but gets him nowhere close to McGwire. Gwynn was a rightfielder, a position where he won 5 gold glove awards but it is still a position that is mostly rated by the players' offense (unlike centerfielder). He still finishes short of McGwire.

So clearly it was his steroid use that caused his low vote count. Which I think needs to be pointed out was not illegal when he was playing. So the question now comes up are the baseball writers punishing McGwire for just one year and will let him in next year or is this something that is permanent.

Something toThink About

From the Sports Economist comes this rebuttal to Matthew Zemek.

First Matthew Zemek,

This trend of rapid upward escalation in coaching salaries — while evidently necessary to land or keep big-name coaches, as this Alabama deal proves — is simply not a healthy development in American society. While loads of problems exist in the world of primary education, this country's secondary institutions are throwing around ungodly sums of cash so that King Football will succeed on Saturdays.

Then the reply,

Saban's high salary is *not* a sign of an unhealthy society. .....the diamond-water paradox applies. According to the paradox, water is necessary for life but diamonds are not, yet the price of diamonds is much higher than water. Understanding the solution to the paradox comes from understanding two things: 1. the value of any good is determined by the satisfaction consumers obtain from it at the margin; 2. the price of anything is determined by its relative scarcity. It's quite possible for there to be quite a gulf between the two (the so-called consumer surplus).

Diamonds are more pricey than water because they are relatively scarce while water is relatively abundant. The price that people pay for diamonds is much closer to the marginal satisfaction they obtain from them while the difference between the marginal satisfaction obtained from water and the price of water is much greater. The fact that water is necessary for life and we can get it for a cheap price is a cause for celebration, not general alarm.

BCS Prediction: Ohio St. over Florida

Ohio State will win but I'm rooting for Florida. The Buckeyes are strong on the lines and have just as much speed as Florida.

Final Score: Ohio St. 26, Florida 17

Wild Card Predictions - Updated

UPDATE: Well, I went 2-2, that's not too bad considering Romo botched hold could of brought me to 3-1. But on the bad side my four year-old daughter went 4-0 and my seven year-old went 3-1.

Chiefs 21,Colts 16
I'm calling an upset here. I think the Chiefs are going to be able to run over the Colts very bad run defense (NFL rank: dead last). Thus keeping the ball out of Manning's hands.
Okay, I blew this one. I sure didn't think the Colts defense was going show up.

Cowboys 24, Seahawks 17
The Cowboys are just slightly better than the Seahawks and even though Seattle has home field advantage I think the Parcells-coached Cowboys will come out on top.
Wow, thanks Tony.

Patriots 30, Jets 14
The Patriots are just plain better on both sides of the ball.
About what I thought.

Eagles 27, Giants 23
This should be an entertaining game. This is two division rivals going at it in a high stakes game. But the Eagles are on a roll and should be able to win at home.
I was right on about this being entertaining.

The Rose Bowl and I'm Kicking Myself

Watching USC dismantle Michigan in the second half I realized that it was probably for the best that the Wolverines didn't get to the championship game. Lloyd Carr doesn't seem like the kind of coach who will make the adjustments necessary to win the big game. Especially if he is given enough time.And now I'm kicking myself. I didn't see the second half of the Fiesta Bowl. I didn't see Oklahoma come back from an 18 point deficit. I didn't see Boise St. score on a hook and ladder with just seconds to go. I didn't see Adrian Peterson score on a 25 yard run on the first play of overtime. I didn't see Boise St. score on fourth down in OT and then I definitely didn't see Boise St. go for two and get it with a Statue of Liberty play.

Nope, I didn't see any of it. And now my butt really hurts.